More accurately predicting Ontario lamb prices

May 19, 2016

 Running a business can be difficult if you don’t know what price you might be able to sell your products for. The Ontario Sheep Marketing Agency (OSMA) turned to Growing Forward 2 (GF2) for funding to develop a price predictor model for the Ontario sheep industry.

The price predictor was developed by the Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of Guelph, and is focused on predicting the price of lambs, specifically of the 65 – 75 pound category, on the Ontario Livestock Exchange.

Unlike other livestock sectors such as beef and hogs that have futures markets, sheep market pricing relies solely on auction or cash markets to provide pricing for the day lambs are sold.
To build the predictor, researchers estimated a number of statistical models – those typically used in asset pricing and exchange rate modelling – using weekly data from January 1, 2008 onward. The lamb price predictor’s forecast range from one to 52 weeks ahead with confidence intervals illustrating the degree of uncertainty.

The model was tested during ...

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